Why naval warfare is at a once-in-a-generation turning point

Nothing drives change in defence technologies as much as an active conflict. When hostilities break out, the innovation cycle tends to go into overdrive, with each side looking for new ways to defeat enemy defences and achieve strategic dominance.

With conflicts now underway in Ukraine, the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea, we have entered a major new era of transformation of not only defence technologies but strategies, too. Doctrines and tactics that just five years ago were at the cutting edge are being challenged, raising questions about how prepared the West’s armed forces are for the next major conflict.

So, what factors are driving this upheaval? How are navies and defence manufacturers responding? And what might naval warfare look like a decade from now?

A rapidly evolving threat environment

One of the big drivers of change across the land, sea and air domains is the impact of low-cost uncrewed systems. Recent conflicts have shown that in the right circumstances relatively inexpensive platforms can destroy significant military and civilian assets. Take the Black Sea, where Ukraine has demonstrated how uncrewed surface vessels and other comparatively low-cost systems can threaten major warships. Or the Red Sea, where Houthi forces have used drones and missiles to disrupt commercial shipping and challenge advanced Western naval forces. Recent conflicts have demonstrated that modern navies must be capable of defending against highly sophisticated threats like anti-ship missiles, while also countering large numbers of relatively cheap drones and uncrewed vessels.

Another driver is the remarkable pace of innovation. Under the pressure of war, armed forces are rapidly experimenting with new technologies, tactics and combinations of existing systems. In war zones like Ukraine, technologies are now tested over weeks before either being abandoned or implemented at scale. Compare that with conventional weapons development, which can take months or years, even for agile developers like Saab.

At the same time, advances in civilian technologies, particularly AI, electronics and autonomous systems, are creating new possibilities for military applications. AI is penetrating society and the defence sector at an astounding rate: generative AI has reached 53 percent population adoption in just three years, a far faster uptake rate than for either the internet or personal computers. 
The overall result is an increasingly unpredictable threat environment.

Rethinking naval doctrine

As threats evolve, so are naval doctrines and the ways navies operate. 
One significant shift has been the movement to increasing survivability: not just protecting vessels and their crews but ensuring that naval forces can continue to fulfil their missions in rapidly changing and increasingly hostile environments.
Learning lessons from the use of drones in Ukraine, some Western navies are making significant investments in hybrid fleets, allowing traditional crewed warships to operate alongside uncrewed vessels and aircraft. The United Kingdom’s Royal Navy is among those pursuing this approach, with trials of uncrewed speedboats and autonomous helicopters. Rather than relying exclusively on large, sophisticated warships, future fleets could deploy numerous smaller autonomous or remotely operated platforms like these. They could perform reconnaissance, gather intelligence and potentially engage threats. These platforms could also operate far closer to hostile forces than manned vessels, extending the reach of the fleet while keeping personnel and high-value assets at safer distances.

Some of these uncrewed solutions may be relatively inexpensive and expendable. Losing an uncrewed sensor platform is far more economically favourable than losing a frigate and its crew. But larger uncrewed vessels could eventually operate alongside conventional warships, taking on increasingly complex missions.
The implications extend beyond the vessels themselves. With more platforms operating across a wider area, naval forces will need to coordinate their activities and share information effectively. Human operators will remain central to decision-making, but increasingly sophisticated automation and AI could help them manage more complex operations. The result could be a very different model of naval warfare: more distributed, more adaptable and less dependent on concentrating people and capabilities aboard a relatively small number of high-value vessels. Central to the success of these hybrid fleets will be their ability to gather and share accurate information, making advanced sensing capabilities more important than ever.

The future of naval sensing

As we move towards these more complex operational models, combining active and passive sensors will become increasingly important. While active radar provides vital detection and tracking capabilities, its electromagnetic emissions can reveal a vessel's presence to an adversary. Passive sensors can gather information without transmitting, helping naval forces maintain situational awareness while reducing their own detectability.

Meanwhile, advances in digital technology will enable some sensors to become smaller and more powerful, detecting smaller targets at greater distances. Depending on the sensor type and operating conditions, these developments could also improve the detection of smaller targets at greater distances. Saab already manufactures sensors that can detect and track even the smallest objects, and this capability will become critical as the skies and waterways become crowded with platforms.

This sensor strength will be enhanced by AI that enables operators to make better sense of the information gathered, automatically correlating observations from different sources and adding valuable context. By presenting crews with more accurate information, these technologies should reduce workloads and enable faster, better-informed decisions.

In summary, while threats and technologies are changing rapidly, navies that are willing to adapt and examine their doctrines and tactics will do well as we move into the next decade. As fleets become more distributed, naval leaders must recognise that success depends not only on the capabilities of individual vessels and sensors, but on how successfully they can be integrated into a coherent network.

The winning side in naval conflicts in coming decades may not be the most powerful combatant but the one with the superior shared operational picture. Its commanders will make better-informed decisions and coordinate their forces more effectively, providing a significant tactical advantage.

Meet Tobias Birging at Euronaval 2026

Tobias Birging is Head of Domains within Saab's BU Surface Sensor Solutions. He is a former officer in the Royal Swedish Navy with experience in national and international operations. 

Want to explore how evolving naval threats are shaping the future of maritime surveillance? Visit Saab at Euronaval, 3–6 November, in Hall 6, stand H162, to meet our experts and discover the latest developments in naval sensor technology.